Fixing Microsoft: A How-To Guide
September 29th, 2008 | Posted by innovOther than another profitable quarter, Microsoft (MSFT) has little to celebrate these days. The company is falling sadly behind, serving fewer ads, video clips, search results, or personal Web pages than rival Google (GOOG). Microsoft’s $300 million ad campaign humanized Bill Gates but left consumers wondering, Where’s the beef? The company can’t even seem to buy up competitors (Yahoo! (YHOO), anyone?).
And the world is moving away from the kind of desktop-based software that makes up Microsoft’s bread and butter, shifting toward a more distributed form of computing that exists in the so-called cloud, where the operating system (OS) disappears into a fog of user-friendly online applications and servers, scattered across the Internet.
In the midst of so much upheaval, what’s an 800-pound gorilla to do?
Fortunately, large monopolies can reinvent themselves. IBM (IBM) did it. Twice. How else could the company that dominated the mechanical punch-card market have crossed the chasm to dominate electronic computers? And reinvention is precisely how the company known for mainframes—those mammoth, centrally located machines supporting thousands of users—pioneered the personal computer.
Microsoft must draw on its experience, market share, and cash that’s not tied up in buybacks to define the computer of the future. Here is my three-point plan:
1. Take the lead on privacy: What, trust Microsoft? But who else are you going to trust? Google, the company that scans your e-mail and every mapping request to determine which ads to send your way? Or what about Facebook, which has a hard time keeping pictures of your drunken escapades hidden from potential employers? Remember that it was President Richard Nixon, a Republican, who opened communist China, and it was Lyndon Johnson, a southern Democrat, who passed major civil rights legislation. So the idea isn’t crazy.
What’s more, protecting privacy is in Microsoft’s interest. It’s the perfect act of jujitsu against Google, which has much to gain from the ad targeting techniques that put privacy in jeopardy. Microsoft, on the other hand, has a secure desktop revenue stream, which means it can temporarily accept lower ad rates. By taking the high road and refusing to analyze the minutiae of personal Web surfing behavior, Microsoft could even reduce the value of Google’s targeted ad placement, becoming the friend of the very customers who might otherwise find PCs anything but “PC.”
Enhanced privacy controls on Internet Explorer 8 Beta are a first step. But these controls are hardly more than opaque and confusing Band-Aids. Microsoft should redesign its software to allow anonymous surfing by default. It should make passwords secure, perhaps by offering physical devices that sit on a key ring or reside as software in a cell phone, spitting out new passwords daily.
2. Build software around the way we actually use computers: Today’s computer world is miles advanced from even a decade past. No longer a restricted business tool, computers are now a social common where our kids graze and our companies transact business. I haven’t taken a film-based photograph in five years, and I haven’t written a first draft on yellow legal paper in 10. My computer contains my most tangible and important records—and yet Microsoft Windows treats that information as if it were disposable.
Instead, it should:
•Treat upgrades as habitual. The first PCs were built as if they were your last. Data were spread like dandelion seeds across the hard drive in perishable formats reliant on buggy programs for access and interpretation.
Well, in the real world we upgrade every other year, outrun disk capacity storing photos and movies, and try out the latest software package weekly. Microsoft should rebuild Windows from the ground up—ripping out DOS, eliminating the software La Brea tar pit known as “The Registry”, and better compartmentalizing applications and data. Just drag your app from your 2009 computer to the 2010 model, and all the data are swept along, automatically upgrading the software and refreshing file formats. No fuss, no muss. Like a routine oil change.
•Secure your data: The current Windows firewall is a joke, basically nagging you into allowing all programs to run, while still requiring weekly security “patching” to fix an old and teetering OS security model. The problem is too much integration with the OS. A better system would loosely couple software, data, and OS so there is no single point of failure or easy entry for hackers.
•Fix the user interface: Do you have any idea what the difference is between a “preference,” an “option,” a “customization,” or a “settings” menu? Well, neither do I (though I expect they just ran out of space on the option menu and created the others to make room). Microsoft should take the bold position of simplifying its products. Yes, people are always requesting new features, and yes, those features are sometimes valuable. But no one person uses all the capabilities. Apps should be simple, light, and modular, so users can install a few small add-ins— as needed, and only when needed.
3. The cloud is the computer: There is little doubt that most software innovation is happening in the “cloud,” that loosely connected network of Internet services, software, machines, and people. Yet most people still access the cloud through their PC, and probably rely on their computer for word processing and games. Microsoft could (and to some extent is) offering Web-based versions of its applications. But it’s a restricted set that lacks the innovation engine powering the cloud.
While it still has time, Microsoft should transform its physical PC platform into a cloned mirror, living inside the cloud. That is, you could own a virtual PC hosted within the Internet—where you install any desired program, store your pictures in the “My Photos” folder, play games, and so on. Over time, the lines would blur between the cloud and the virtual PC, but by then Microsoft would have taken the lead from the deficient first-generation Web 2.0 programs now running amok inside the cloud.
Consider the advantages. Microsoft wouldn’t have to develop a separate version of each app for Windows and MS Live, and developers could offer an iTunes-like store of cool apps that run on the virtual processor. Such a setup would also more energy efficient.
For the user, the PC-in-the-cloud approach provides unlimited disk space, and your most precious files automatically are backed up. If a virus invades your virtual computer, just “roll back” to the previous day’s clean version. You could access your virtual computer through any browser, even on your smart phone; easily share data with family and friends; and run Internet services like any other desktop app. And you could clone the virtual computer back into your physical laptop, so you have the same environment and data available even when traveling.
Radical suggestions? Perhaps. But few large companies survive the transition from their original founders. Gates is out at Microsoft. The time is ripe for bold thinking while Microsoft’s incumbency is a strategic asset, rather than a liability that renders the world’s biggest software maker a prisoner of its own history.
Free fallin’ — only four out of 500 in S&P 500 holding gains
September 29th, 2008 | Posted by stockIt’s an across-the-board massacre in the stock market after the House of Representatives voted down the Paulsen bailout plan. I just took a spin through all 500 components of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and only four stocks are up on the day. It’s a mixed bag:
Campbell Soup (Symbol: CPB), which increased its dividend and stock buyback plan a few days ago.
Consolidated Edison (ED), utilities overall are holding better and somebody must like getting paid a yield of over 5%.
Edison International (EIX), another utility.
Biogen IDEC (BIIB), on no new news
And that’s all folks. Ouch.
September 25th, 2008 | Posted by innovOne of the great specialties of my colleague, David Schildknecht, is the Loire Valley, which he calls “the bargain garden of France.” Here are some terrific white wine selections on the market now that are under $25 a bottle and represent sensational values. With fish and shellfish (even sushi), these wines are a marriage made in paradise.
88 points
2007 Château du Cléray Muscadet de Sèvre et Main sur Lie Réserve Haute Culture
The Château du Cléray’s 2007 Muscadet de Sèvre et Main sur Lie Réserve Haute Culture (from the house of Sauvion) originates in a flint and clay rich soil. This may lie behind its relative body and richness of peachy fruit, as well as the prominently saline mineral cast and a wealth of flowers and foliage that puts me in mind of walking into a greenhouse. This distinctive and impressively concentrated Muscadet should give pleasure over the next two years, and perhaps longer. $16
88 points
2006 Domaine de la Quilla Muscadet de Sèvre et Maine Sur Lie
The 2006 Muscadet de Sèvre et Maine Sur Lie of Daniel and Gérard Vinet is restrained in its aromas of cress, lime and wet stone. With penetrating citrus rind pungency as well as notes of oyster shells and ocean water, it clings impressively, while offering an unusually glossy texture. Enjoy it over the next six months. $14
88 points
Non-vintage Domaine des Aubuisières Vouvray Brut Méthode Traditionelle Girardières (sparkling white)
The current Aubuisières non-vintage Vouvray Brut Méthode Traditionelle (with lot number LO10905) tweaks the nose with lemon oil, salt spray, and pungent flowers. Chalky, saline and alkaline on the palate, and with moderately fine mousse, it clings impressively with honey and bittersweet citrus oil. This is a wine of sheer intensity and minerality. Drink it over the next year. $18
89 points
2006 Andre-Michel Brégeon Muscadet de Sèvre et Maine Sur Lie
Brégeon’s 2006 Muscadet de Sèvre et Maine Sur Lie displays subtle floral notes on the nose and particular polish and mouth-filling generosity, all the while dominated by a cool, clear, refreshing fruit personality and utterly suffused with saline, oyster shell, and other ineffable mineral traces. The finish is bracingly like salt and chalk-encrusted fresh lime. Enjoy this Muscadet anytime over the next couple of years. $16
89 points
2005 Château d’Epire Savennières
Château d’Epire’s 2005 Savennières is pronouncedly mineral even in its aromas, suggesting oyster shell and sea breeze, along with quince and lime. Palpably thick yet bright on the palate, it is like a mineral soup of some sort, yet with tart, purple plum, and huckleberry fruit. This should be fascinating to follow for the next two to three years, and the way it behaves, it seems as though it should be a healthful tonic as well! $17
89 points
2007 Serge Dagueneau Pouilly-Fumé Les Pentes
This 2007 Pouilly-Fumé Les Pentes from Serge Dagueneau’s daughters confirms the persistence of talent and excellence at this estate, even if the vintage circumstances were more challenging that for the outstanding 2005. Smelling of peppermint, sage, lime, and honeydew melon, this coats the palate with chalky, nutty, pungently herbal, and citrus zest residues. Impressively bright and focused, it finishes with a combination of lemon and peppermint guaranteed to leave your eyes wide open. $23
90 points
2007 Francis Blanchet Pouilly-Fumé Silice
Francis Blanchet’s 2007 Pouilly-Fumé Silice smells of fresh lime, cassis, and fennel. Luscious and loaded with generous, juicy citrus fruit, it is charming and generous, with all the brightness and intensity of this grower’s other 2007s here in spades. Its chalky, saline, citric, tart black fruit finish literally tugs at your salivary glands. $23
91 points
2006 Claude Branger Muscadet de Sèvre et Maine Sur Lie Les Gras Moutons
Claude Branger has just released his 2006 Muscadet de Sèvre et Maine Sur Lie Les Gras Moutons. Lovers of Muscadet will not want to miss this old-vine bottling. With aromas of oyster shell, sea water, kelp, quince, pineapple, and lime, your mouth will be set aquiver by the mineral and citrus intensity of this wine, whose sheer, palpable density of extract is remarkable, not to mention for a wine of only 12% alcohol. “Palate-staining” is almost too weak a word for the finish. Treat yourself to a bottle from time to time over the next two to three years. $18
Crisis: A crucial or decisive point or situation; a turning point. (American Heritage Dictionary)
A crisis doesn’t have to be defined as one by those outside your organization to qualify as one. If you think your business and your reputation are in danger, then it’s time to act, whether the problem is widely known or acknowledged by your employees, your customers, or the media.
Crises by nature are messy, often unfolding at a pace that makes careful and considered response difficult. Sometimes, they stem from unforeseen events, and in retrospect some could have been predicted, but always they present a test of leadership skill and preparation.
Communication Is Key
Crises represent turning points for business health and reputation, often leaving both in tatters. If handled well, though, a crisis response can actually enhance reputation and spur some needed dialogue and change.
JetBlue (JBLU), for instance, struggled to explain itself to hundreds of stranded customers this winter after back-to-back storms managed to bring the discount airline to a standstill. Of course, it wasn’t the storms themselves that customers demanded explanations for: It was the failure of JetBlue’s management to foresee that its no-cancelled-flights policy would inevitably be at odds with its phenomenal customer growth, as well as the vagaries of weather. Considering the airline achieved its tremendous growth largely because of its customer-friendly reputation, its failure to anticipate such cancellations and plan accordingly became the focus of the debate over what went wrong.
How does a business prepare for crisis, for either the knowable or the unforeseen events that can seriously impact its reputation and bottom line? What should customers, employees, investors, and the general public expect from a business when a crisis hits? Take a look at our Crisis Handling Playbook.
Playing Ostrich Won’t Work
At minimum, clear and immediate communication is an antidote. If stakeholders know you’re aware that there’s a problem, that may be enough in the short run to maintain goodwill until the problem is fixed or at least dealt with. But as a former reporter, I know it’s far easier to find examples of poor-crisis communications response than it is to find examples of those who learn from others’ high-profile mistakes.
The more common business response to crisis is to say nothing and hope the problem goes away or the public simply isn’t paying close attention. In the absence of a full picture of what happened and why, this tactic rarely does anything other than allow the court of public opinion to reach a verdict. A lack of information fuels anxiety rather than defuses it.
Risk communications has as its central tenet the need for some kind of communication with those who are affected by the crisis. There are indeed steps to take and fundamentals to keep in mind as you consider how your business can prepare to deal with its own crises.
September 23rd, 2008 | Posted by innovWhen it comes to innovation, David almost always beats Goliath. We know you don’t want to hear it, but it is true.
That’s why while the rest of us are dreaming of the missed final exam, you keep having nightmares about the maverick company that is about to put you out of business with the industry-changing product or service that makes your beloved Goliath Inc. obsolete.
History shows you have the right to be worried. Whoever thought that GM (GM) would be struggling for its very existence while Japanese car companies thrived or a once tiny regional institution known as North Carolina National Bank would end up owning Merrill Lynch (MER)?
To allow you to sleep easier at night, let’s examine three strategies that small and midsize company constantly employ against you, and talk about what you can do to counter.
David Strategy #1: Being Just Right Enough
There is an old axiom about business leaders needing to be right only 51% of the time. The practice of constant experimentation is as fundamental to research as it is to innovation; Try, fail, learn; Try, fail; learn; Try, succeed, repeat.
Ask most honest entrepreneurs, and they will tell you that even their business plan followed this pattern. When you are small, you benefit from a quick cycle of experimentation and learning. When you are big, the budgets, culture, and shareholders all stand in your way of following this pattern.
Small and smart companies understand the value of trial and error. If you are a Goliath, you may look at your innovation team and notice that nothing revolutionary is hitting the market. If that is the case, chances are they are afraid of failing. After all if nothing launches, nothing can fail, and therefore they can’t be blamed. From a personal survival point of view, within a corporation it is better to kill an idea than to launch it.
You must demand small, controlled launches that allow your teams to learn, build courage, and taste success.
Imagine what would happen if you told your team that it was O.K. to break even, or (gasp) lose money in the short term (if they were reasonably sure they would learn enough from the failure to increase the chances of succeeding next time around?) Rather than imagining it, look down the street. That $100 million company is doing this to you right now.
David Strategy #2: Attack Tradition
Show us a mature business, and we will show you either a superannuated management team that wants to freeze time or an entrenched union keeping the company from doing what is necessary.
The fact is that if you are in a mature industry, you are surrounded by: inertia, habit, tradition, complacency, and “expertise,” people who know the best way something should be done (i.e. it’s the way THEY have always done it.) You’ve been in the room with these people. From their experience, they can give you 10 reasons why any new idea won’t work.
This produces amazing opportunities for upstart companies to beat you with innovation. You need to look no further than insurance (all the Web-based firms), advertising (new media models), and airlines (examples too numerous to mention.) What do you do? The obvious answer is to slash bureaucracy; fire the people who are hindering progress, and beef up your innovation efforts. The less
Stock Buybacks Retreat 44% in Second Quarter; Cash holdings goes up
September 23rd, 2008 | Posted by stockAs uncertainty grew and commitment to significant cash outflows for purchases declined, buybacks pulled back from their record highs. S&P 500 stock buyback activity slowed considerably during Q2,’08, posting its lowest level since Q3,’05. The $87.9 billion in stock buybacks during the second quarter represented a 44.3% decline over the $157.8 billion spent during the second quarter of 2007. The actual dollar level of buybacks however remains at a historically high level, partially due to the need to satisfy stock options. I anticipates that the Q3,’08 period will also show a significant decline in stock buybacks due to the uncertainty in the market, and the comparison to the record $172 billion spent on buybacks during Q3,’07.
On a sector basis, the shift continues. Financial issue buybacks were few and far between, accounting for just 6.6% of the aggregate repurchases, compared to 17.0% in Q2,’07. Additionally, many Financials issued shares and dilutive instruments to shore up liquidity during the quarter. Information Technology continued to increase its expenditures on buybacks and now accounts for 26.2% of all buybacks.
Yesterdays buyback program announcements (MSFT, HPQ, NKE) fit well with the hoped for recovery, but the proof of the pudding will be in the actual trade and that will depend as much on perception as market conditions. I expect buybacks to continue at sufficient levels to prevent option dilution, with additional purchases being dependant on the issuer’s market perception
Q2 buybacks off 44.3%, at $87.9B vs. $157.8B for Q2,’07, but still 41.9% higher than dividends ($61.9B)
Operating earnings $148.4B vs $213.7B (-30.5%)
As Reported earnings $114.8B vs $194.3B (-40.9%)
Dividends $61.9 vs. $59.4B (+4.2%)
Capital Expenditures $130.7B vs. $112.7B (+15.9%)
Financials continued to add shares and dilutive instruments
IT pullback less severe, partially due to option coverage; account for 26.2% of index buybacks
Cash levels for the S&P 500 Industrials (Old) increased to their highest level ever
XOM still the poster child for buybacks and SCR (Share Count Reduction) – 32 quarters in a row, since Q3 2000
Since the buyback boom in Q4,’04, S&P 500 issues have spent approximately $1.64 trillion on stock buybacks compared to $1.73 trillion on Capital Expenditures and $845 billion on dividends.
QUARTER BUYBACKS-BILLION
06/30/2008 $87.91
03/31/2008 $113.90
12/31/2007 $141.71
09/30/2007 $171.95
06/30/2007 $157.76
03/31/2007 $117.70
12/31/2006 $105.18
09/30/2006 $109.81
06/30/2006 $116.66
03/31/2006 $100.18
12/31/2005 $104.28
09/30/2005 $81.47
06/30/2005 $81.42
03/31/2005 $82.05
12/31/2004 $66.42
09/30/2004 $45.68
06/30/2004 $42.46
A year ago, a YouTube enthusiast posted a video depicting what he called the “Jesus Shot” in Tiger Woods PGA Tour 2009. This video showed off a bug in the game where players could take a shot while standing on water. Electronic Arts issued a response to this with its own video, showing that Tiger does indeed Walk on Water.
Now, EA getting in on an Internet meme might seem a little like your dad ‘friending’ you on Facebook. It’s worth noting, though, that this ad got the attention of ESPN’s E:60 show and has gotten over 2.1 million views on YouTube. To any marketer, attracting that sort of attention is classified as a success.
We talked with Praveeta “No Relation to Vijay” Singh, product manager for Tiger Woods PGA Tour at EA Sports, about making Woods float.
The human side of a huge, international corporation
The Tiger Woods “Walk on Water” ad seems somewhat unusual for a company like EA. After all, the ad is an acknowledgment of a bug in one of their games in a tongue-in-cheek sort of way. It also, however, fits with the more personable EA Sports ads of this season and Singh definitely approves of the direction.
“It was actually our advertising agency that brought it to our attention; they thought we could do something with it involving Tiger. We looked at it and we thought it would be pretty funny, so we gave it the go-ahead,” said Singh. “One of the nice things was that people saw the human side of EA. I like to say that I work with a bunch of overgrown five-year-olds! People here really have such passion for sports, and to work in this environment, you have to have a sense of humor.”
“We filmed it here in Orlando in June in one of the courses here. It was before [Tiger] pulled out of the PGA for the rest of the year. Tiger was very cool with the ads,” she continued. “We laid out the storyboards to him and we sent them a lot of examples showing what we wanted to do. When they saw it, they saw exactly what we wanted to do right off the bat, so there wasn’t a lot of clarification or debate.”
Millions have seen Tiger walk on water
Another unique fact about the ad is that it was actually released first on the web before it became a TV ad spot. Part of the reason for this was that it was an appropriate response to a video that originated on the web, but it’s about more than that. As we’ve noted here in Ad Watch, the eyeballs aren’t necessarily there in the TV space anymore, so trying to reach out to fans via a viral web promotion was a very savvy move on EA’s part.
“It’s really important as we look at our marketing list to reach new marketing mediums,” described Singh. “People are on the Internet and one of the things we consider is that, with TiVo, people skip over commercials. You think about all the things you’re doing in a day, you might not watch TV, but you’ve probably been online. As marketers we’re looking for different ways to approach our customers. We want this new Tiger ad to be appealing and show that there’s a new game out there.”
“We see it as a way of reaching [our customers] on a different level. But it is also more personal and shows a different side to EA,” she continued. “We’re always inundated with information and our attention spans are getting shorter, so I think putting the clip on the web works to that as well. It’s funny because when people look for a clip they go to video on YouTube first and not through ‘conventional channels.’”
So help me Jesus
EA has been moving in general more towards connected community features with its games. Skate had a feature that allowed players to upload their videos quickly and easily and NCAA Football 2009 allowed players to play dynasty mode online. It’s these attempts at reaching out and connecting with fans in a personal way that EA will continue to look into.
“Last year the game came out with the Tiger Net features, and now we’re making it easier to post clips, so anytime you’re in any portion of the game, these videos made by other players will be running as you’re playing,” described Singh. “The user generated content makes it a much more personal experience, allowing players to see what others are doing, like do you try to get the best score or do wacky shots off of trees? We want to make the experience as fun as possible; instead of us telling you what’s fun, you tell us what’s fun.”
“I think overall we’re very pleased with how this and the Rubik’s Cube one have done; they’ve gotten good traction and it proves our theory that this is a valuable marketing avenue. I can say that it’s something more we’re looking to do with our titles,” she concluded.
September 17th, 2008 | Posted by stockPosted by: Howard Silverblatt on September 17, 2008
While U.S. markets are down, they are doing significantly better than the other 51 global markets, with the U.S. posting the best return (lowest loss) for the MTD and QTD. Global markets are set to post one of their worst quarters in recent history, with the current QTD loss being $4.74 trillion ($0.80 trillion from the U.S), and $9.51 trillion YTD ($2.25 trillion). The file below is sorted by QTD, with the split being Emerging and Developed markets.
Download file
Don’t Read If You’re Under 50 or Have Less Than 30 Years in the Business
September 12th, 2008 | Posted by stockI have a picture of my son and daughter, when they were 8 and 10, in front of Delmonico’s in downtown NY. It goes along with the picture of me, when I was about that age, standing next to the piano (as you came in, on the left – gone sometime in the late 70s or early 80s). I remember how to manually figure out a fixed commission, as well as MannyHanny, a dozen (or so) individual Fortunoff stores in a decaying Brooklyn neighborhood where hot pretzels were three for a quarter, and Dean Witter picking up Reynolds. And I remember when EF Hutton talked, I remember when they built the trade center (my father’s office overlooked it), and I was there the day it fell (took shelter at AIG). I remember why, first hand, if you gave your word for a trade at Harry’s you had better keep it – regardless of the next morning news, and I lived through the ’87 crash (options in the money – I didn’t think they could trade lower than wall paper), along with the layoffs and reading in the Sunday paper that Rothschild’s muni business would close the next day. And I was there for the credit crunches, currency (and country) failures, the Tec ‘hits’ and bust, and I’m here now, for all the fun.
Our industry is known for its ups and downs, you have to make it when you can, and there’s little sympathy for second place. But this time is different. Maybe its automation and outsourcing. You used to need two traders to do the arb on an issue – buy on Ph and match on NY, all for an eighth, now there’s not even a Yen on currency variances. Or maybe it’s my age wondering why, or maybe I’m just rewriting history. Regardless of why, the already diminishing street is getting a lot smaller, and my point is institutions, like Bear and so many others, stood for something. Lehman is in a battle, and rightfully to the street it’s survival of the fittest – if they can make it great, if not its part of the continuing process. But for just one moment, again maybe its age or fear that I’m next in line, I actually feel sad. Sad for the people who invested in the stock, sad for the non-executive workers and their families, and sad for the decline of an institution that stood for something to so many of us. There should be no asterisk on Maris’ name (I was there that day, I know), and more importantly to the world, where have you gone Joe DiMaggio?
S&P 500: -$378B today, +$223B Monday, -$333B Thursday,… $3.1T off Oct,’07 high
September 9th, 2008 | Posted by stockThe index declined 3.41% (preliminary), losing $378B in market value, and suffering its worst day since Feb 27, 2007, when it declined 3.47% (-3.52% on 3/24/03, -4.15% on 9/2/02). The index is now $3.1 Trillion lighter than it was on October 9, 2007.
While the VIX remains more than halfway down from it’s January 37.6 high and 17.8 June low at 25.2, the YTD volatility as measured by daily moves of at least 1% in either direction is the 11th most volatile period since 1928 (YTD vs. full year) . While the early year was nerve-racking with all those worst starts since well before any of us (OK, most) were born, the volatility level declined and then started to pick-up again in those fun-filled summer days of June-July (-9.50% for the S&P 500). Earnings season begins soon, and with the Q4 updates will come the traditional forward year (2009) downward EPS adjustments. I expect the volatility to pick-up with EPS surprises and expectations change quickly.
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